In the era of “American carnage”, as proclaimed by Trump, it is instructive to look at which countries are at-peak or off-peak in economic performance terms.
The United States and 54 other larger countries are currently at-peak, while 26 larger countries are off-peak. But the story within the U.S. differs.
We took GDP per capita for each country from 1991 till 2016 to see if 2016 has the highest GDP per capita over the past 25 years. If yes, we label the country at-peak. If no, we label it off-peak and calculate how far the 2016 GDP per capita is below the highest GDP per capita over the 25 years.
The following countries are at-peak. Their current performance is the best they have ever had. The United States has been at-peak since 2013.
ECONOMIC AT-PEAK COUNTRIES IN 2016
|Chile||Germany||Korea, South||Singapore||United Kingdom|
|Cote d'Ivoire||Hong Kong||Myanmar||Sweden||Viet Nam|
Below are the off-peak countries that may warrant a carnage discussion. They typically have had severe civil strife or are oil dependent.
At the U.S. state level, there is at least some carnage. First we show the 29 at-peak states.
ECONOMIC AT-PEAK STATES IN 2016
|Illinois||Minnesota||New Jersey||Rhode Island||Wisconsin|
|Indiana||Missouri||New Mexico||South Dakota|
Below are the 21 off-peak states and D.C. The off-peak states perform better than the off-peak countries, but it is still a bleak picture.*
The average GDP per capita of the at-peak states is $58,100. For the the off-peak states it is $54,200, a 7% difference. The off-peak states represent 30% of U.S. GDP.
Finally, we looked at carnage from the industrial sector perspective. Each industry’s contribution to GDP is called value added (VA). The 71 industries available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis were aggregated into 18 main industries for simplicity.**
9 industries were at-peak in 2015 (data for 2016 is not yet available).
AT-PEAK INDUSTRIES IN 2015
|Arts, entertainment, and recreation||Health care||Real estate|
|Educational services||Hospitality services||Transportation and warehousing|
|Financial services||Professional services, non-legal||Wholesale trade|
9 industries were off-peak in 2015. They represent 39% of U.S. private sector GDP.
There is nothing inherently bad with being at-peak or off-peak. Industries come and go. The analysis is rather intended to show social pressure points.
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* Puerto Rico is 10% below its 2004 peak
** We excluded government. Federal government is 8% below its 2010 peak. State and local government is at peak