Our most famous project is “Cheese in China”. In 2005-06, we were commissioned to create a 20 year prediction for where the market was heading. At the time, the Chinese hardly ate any cheese. We predicted it would be the second largest market in the world by 2025.
Today we are half-way there. We predicted 32% annual growth (far above any other observer). Actual growth is 32%.
Why this remarkable success? Because we look at predictions as a strategic exercise, not a statistical modelling exercise. Never commission a consulting firm to model the future. Commission them to understand the future (supported by a model). (more…)