With the the never-ending stream of alarming news about the world economy, it is difficult to form an opinion about what is really going on. This post takes a dispassionate look at 2017–a “nowcast.”
We find that 2017 is expected to a slightly better than average year compared to the past forty years. Outperformers: Emerging countries and Asia.
We used the IMF’s October 2016 World Economic Outlook data (which is the basis for our C-GIDD projections). The analysis is based on GDP per capita growth with 2017 / 2016 growth compared to 1976-2016 (40 years).
The graph below shows that global growth in 2017 is expected to be 2.2%. Thus, it is a slightly better than an average year. 2007 was the strongest year, and 2009 the weakest year in the 40 year period.
The performances of the world’s largest countries are shown in the dot plot graph below. ESESA (East, Southeast, South Asia) dominate at the top.
The full set of growth rates is available in the interactive chart below. It shows GDP per capita growth by affluence level, size, region, or individual country.
Two observations stand out when cutting the data in different ways.
- Asia’s 2017 growth is higher than its 40 year average
- Emerging countries have higher growth in 2017 than their 40 year average