With the the never-ending stream of alarming news about the world economy, it is difficult to form an opinion about what is really going on. This post takes a dispassionate look at 2017–a nowcast.
We find that 2017 is expected to be materially better than the average year. Out-performers: Emerging countries in general and especially Asia.
We used the IMF’s April 2017 World Economic Outlook data (which is the basis for our C-GIDD projections). The analysis is based on GDP per capita growth expected in 2017 compared to the 1976-2016 average (40 years).
The graph below shows that global growth in 2017 is expected to be 2.3%. Thus, it is a materially better than an average year. 2007 was the strongest year and 2009 the weakest year in the 40 year period.
Two observations stand out when cutting the data in different ways.
- Asia’s 2017 growth is higher than its 40 year average
- Emerging countries have higher growth in 2017 than their 40 year average