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Intrinsic Growth Rates

10/24/2019

How quickly should a category or brand grow to avoid standing still? It depends on how fast the relevant part of the population is growing. We updated our popular analysis and it now covers 2019-2029. We changed the definition of large country to base it on population. Ethiopia thereby joins the top 20 countries by size and leads the future growth list (from a small base).

Only the higher (affluent) socioeconomic classes can afford branded consumer goods. Thus, one can easily see—using C-GIDD data—how quickly a category should grow based only on socioeconomic changes.

In the graphs below, we quantified the growth of the “branded consumer goods class” for mainstream and premium products* between 2019 and 2029 for the 20 largest markets in the world.

If a category grows at this rate, it is steady and holds its own. If it grows slower, the category is in relative decline. If it grows faster, it is gaining share relative to other categories. The hurdle is what we call the intrinsic growth rate.

The numbers may come as a surprise: “I’m growing my category at 6% a year in Pakistan, and you’re telling me I’m in decline!” Yes, you are slowly declining relative to the opportunity.

Many other factors help determine category or competitive success in consumer goods and retail. But this is a useful metric that helps explain if, e.g., achieving 6% annual growth in the Philippines is easier than 3% growth in Brazil (it is). It also points to the massive opportunities in premium price tiers.

 

 

 * Consumer goods price tiers are often divided into value, mainstream, premium, and superpremium levels.