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Intrinsic Growth Rates

24/03/2018

How quickly should a category or brand grow to avoid standing still? It depends on how fast the relevant part of the population is growing. We updated our popular analysis and it now covers 2018-2028. India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Philippines, and China are the top 5 countries.

Only the higher (affluent) socioeconomic classes can afford branded consumer goods. Thus, one can easily see—using C-GIDD data—how quickly a category should grow based only on socioeconomic changes.

In the graphs below, we quantified the growth of the “branded consumer goods class” for mainstream and premium products* between 2018 and 2028 for the 30 largest markets in the world.

If a category grows at this rate, it is steady and holds its own. If it grows slower, the category is in relative decline. If it grows faster, it is gaining share relative to other categories. The hurdle is what we call the intrinsic growth rate.

The numbers may come as a surprise: “I’m growing my category at 8% a year in Pakistan, and you’re telling me I’m in decline!” Yes, you are slowly declining among relevant consumers.

Many other factors help determine category or competitive success in consumer goods and retail. But this is a useful metric that helps explain if, e.g., achieving 6% annual growth in the Philippines is easier than 2% growth in Australia (it is). It also points to the massive opportunities in premium price tiers.

Intrinsic Growth Rates For Mainstream Branded Products - Annual Growth 2018 - 2028 Chart

Intrinsic Growth Rates For Premium Branded Products - Annual Growth 2018 - 2028 Chart

 * Consumer goods price tiers are often divided into value, mainstream, premium, and superpremium levels.